Q3 2026 Quarterly Newsletter

Dear Friends and Clients,

We closed last quarter's letter with a prediction and a promise. The prediction was that the second half would bring volatility. The promise was that volatility would not change what we own or why we own it. Three months later, we can report that the prediction arrived right on schedule, and the promise held.

From a distance, the third quarter looked almost sleepy. The S&P 500 gained about 2.3% [1], a modest follow-up to the second quarter's 15% surge. Get a little closer, though, and it was anything but calm. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since July 2023 [2]. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed from roughly 4.4% to roughly 5.3% [3]. Utilities fell more than 12%, small companies fell about 7%, and seven of the eleven stock market sectors finished lower [4]. Meanwhile, a small group of very large companies kept the headline index in positive territory.

And then there was Hormuz. Last quarter we noted that if the June memorandum between Washington and Tehran broke down, analysts saw oil back above $100. It broke down, more than once, and Brent crude futures crossed $100 in both July and September before peaking at $109 [5]. If you've started skimming past Hormuz headlines, we'll explain below why that may be the right instinct.

Underneath all of this sits the biggest economic story of our time: the artificial intelligence build-out. The largest technology companies are on pace to spend roughly $800 billion on data centers and equipment this year, about double last year, and they are now borrowing and issuing stock to keep the pace [6,7]. That spending has become the single biggest engine of U.S. business investment, while many other parts of the economy are spending less.

Our Central Thesis Heading into 2027

In Q1 we argued that energy security had become a pillar of the energy transition. In Q2 we named the bottleneck: the grid, and the physical inputs it takes to build it.

The third quarter added a simple lesson: the world keeps paying an "insecurity tax." Every Hormuz flare-up, every oil spike, and every surprise in the bond market reminds governments and companies that domestic, electrified, price-stable energy is a strategic asset. And the AI build-out, now the largest engine of U.S. investment, cannot happen without enormous amounts of new electricity.

Clean energy and grid stocks gave back much of their first-half gains this quarter, mostly because higher interest rates raise the cost of financing long-lived projects, not because demand faded. That is exactly the kind of pullback we said we would use. We continued to add to the theme on the dips, and we expect to keep doing so.

01 — Q3 2026 MARKETS IN REVIEW: CALM ON TOP, CHOPPY UNDERNEATH

The Quarter at a Glance

Figure 1: Selected third-quarter 2026 returns. The cap-weighted S&P 500 (gold) rose while the equal-weighted version, small caps, and rate-sensitive sectors fell.

The cleanest way to describe the quarter is that the bond market took the wheel. In the second quarter, stocks rallied because companies earned a lot more money and the war appeared to be winding down. In the third quarter, companies kept earning a lot more money, but the price of money itself went up. When a "safe" 10-year Treasury pays more than 5%, every other investment has to work harder to look attractive by comparison.

Here is the encouraging part. Because profits kept growing faster than stock prices, the market actually got cheaper even as it went up. The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio fell to about 19 times from 22 at the start of the year [3], and by late October FactSet had it at 18.7, below both its five- and ten-year averages [13]. First Trust notes that earnings growth has been the largest contributor to returns this year, with the valuation multiple shrinking [1]. That is a healthier foundation than a market rising on enthusiasm alone.

02 — THE FED HIKES, THE 10-YEAR CROSSES 5%, AND "LONG-DURATION" STOCKS FEEL IT

What the Fed Did, and Why

On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its target rate by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, ending five straight meetings on hold [11,14]. The decision was unanimous, and the minutes released in October showed most officials expected another increase by year-end, pointing to energy prices, AI-related spending, and inflation that has run above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years [2]. The median official now expects rates to finish 2026 around 4.1%, up from 3.4% as recently as March [15].

Since quarter-end, the Fed held steady at its October 28 meeting, but two officials dissented in favor of another hike, and futures markets moved to price a strong chance of a December increase [16,17]. In plain English: the era of rate cuts that investors expected at the start of the year has turned into a modest tightening cycle.

The 10-Year Yield: The Number That Moved Everything

Figure 2: Selected closing levels of the 10-year Treasury yield during the third quarter. The September 30 level is approximate.

The 10-year Treasury yield, which sets the tone for mortgages, corporate borrowing, and how investors value long-term cash flows, rose from about 4.4% at the end of June [10] to above 5% by mid-September and to roughly 5.3% by quarter-end [3]. On September 28 it reached 5.23%, its highest level since 2007, according to the Associated Press [8]. Longer-term yields kept climbing into early October.

Why Some Stocks Behave Like Long Bonds

A useful way to think about this: some investments pay you mostly now, and some pay you mostly later. A company with big, steady profits today is like a short-term bond. A company whose value depends on cash flows many years from now, or on a steady stream of dividends that look a lot like bond coupons, behaves more like a long-term bond. Investors call this "duration." When interest rates rise, long-duration assets get hit hardest, for the same reason a 30-year bond falls more than a 2-year note.

That is exactly the pattern the third quarter delivered:

• Utilities (−12.4%) were the worst sector [4]. After a strong run in 2024 and 2025 fueled by AI power demand, their dividend yield had shrunk to under 3%, while Treasuries now pay more than 5% [18]. The gap between the 10-year yield and the utility sector's dividend yield topped 2 percentage points in July, the widest since 2007 [19]. For an income investor, the math simply changed.

• Real estate (REITs, −6%) fell for similar reasons: their appeal leans heavily on income, and their business models depend on borrowing [4].

• Small-cap biotech is the purest long-duration asset in the market, since many of these companies have no revenue yet and their value rests on drug approvals years away. The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF reached a five-year high near $170 in August before sliding to roughly $158 by quarter-end, with clinical-stage and smaller companies lagging their larger, commercial-stage peers [20].

One nuance worth flagging, because it matters for portfolios: not every dividend stock was punished equally. The "low volatility" style, which leans toward bond-like sectors, fell about 6.3% in the quarter, while the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100, which focuses on companies with strong cash flows and dividend growth, actually gained about 2.1% [21]. The lesson is that dividends backed by growing businesses held up; dividends that were mainly a substitute for a bond yield did not.

What this meant for us

Last quarter we said bonds were improving but "not yet compelling," and that we wanted to see clearer progress on inflation before locking in longer maturities. That patience mattered: the broad U.S. bond market lost about 4% in the third quarter [3]. Today, with Treasury yields above 5%, high-quality fixed income is offering the most attractive starting income in nearly two decades, and we are paying close attention to when the case for extending maturities becomes compelling.

03 — A MARKET OF A FEW: WHY THE INDEX ROSE WHILE MOST STOCKS FELL

If you looked only at the S&P 500 this quarter, you would have seen a gain. If you looked at the typical stock, you would have seen a loss. The equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF, which gives every company the same weight, fell 2.2%, and more stocks declined than advanced [9]. Small and mid-sized companies fell across the board, while large-cap stocks carried the market [3]. The S&P 500 Growth index outperformed largely because more than half of it sits in information technology [21].

This happens because the S&P 500 is weighted by size. When a handful of companies worth several trillion dollars each move up, they can outweigh hundreds of smaller companies moving down. Technology is now roughly 40% of the index [4], so a good quarter for a few chip makers and cloud giants goes a long way.

The Twist: Earnings Are Actually Broadening

Here is what we find genuinely interesting. Stock prices narrowed in the third quarter, but profits broadened. S&P 500 earnings are on track to grow close to 30% from a year ago, the third straight quarter above 25%, and the blended net profit margin of 14.9% is the second-highest FactSet has recorded since it began tracking the figure in 2009 [13]. Even more striking, by October 30 the other 493 companies in the index were reporting faster earnings growth (about 32.6%) than the "Magnificent 7" (about 22.6%) [22].

Our read is that the market is paying up for the companies it views as least sensitive to interest rates, with fortress balance sheets and enormous cash generation, and paying less for everyone else, even as "everyone else" posts strong results. That kind of gap between fundamentals and prices does not usually last forever, and it is one reason we are comfortable owning companies outside the market's narrow leadership.

Why we don't mind a narrow market (much)

Narrow markets can feel uncomfortable, especially when a diversified portfolio trails a headline index driven by a few names. But they also create opportunities: good businesses get marked down for reasons that have little to do with their own results. Our job is to tell the difference between a stock that is down because its business is weakening and a stock that is down because the 10-year yield went up.

04 — OIL AND HORMUZ: TRUCE, VIOLATION, STRIKE, TALK… REPEAT

The Round Trip, Again

Oil started the quarter at its calmest point since the war began. Brent crude futures opened July at $72 per barrel, the lowest level since late February, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz picked up after the June memorandum [5]. That calm lasted about a week. Military strikes resumed on July 7, and futures crossed $100 on July 23. After trading between $79 and $98 for much of the summer, prices passed $100 again on September 9 following a wave of attacks that included strikes on tankers, a U.S. blockade of Iranian oil exports, and attacks on Saudi pipeline pumping stations. Futures peaked at $109 on September 15 [5]. Crude finished the quarter up nearly 30% [12], and energy was the market's best-performing sector [4].

Figure 3: The recurring cycle of Hormuz headlines, with selected events from mid-June through October 2026.

Why We Don't Blink

If the Hormuz headlines are starting to feel like a rerun, that's because they are. In July, the president declared the June ceasefire "over" while also agreeing to keep talking [23]. By mid-August, the original 60-day negotiating window had lapsed amid renewed strikes [24], and the ceasefire was reportedly extended anyway [25]. September brought another escalation. October, according to maritime consultancy Marisks as reported by Reuters, became the most intense period of attacks on shipping in and around the Strait since March [26]. And then, in late October, diplomacy picked up again and Brent fell more than 6% in a single day [16].

Truce. Violation. Strike. Talk. Repeat. We don't say this to minimize the human toll or the real economic damage, both of which are serious. We say it because trading every headline would have been exhausting and, for most investors, costly. Each spike was followed by a retreat, and each retreat by another spike. One telling detail: in mid-September, when futures peaked at $109, physical "spot" cargoes traded as high as $132 [5]. The physical market was genuinely tight, but futures traders were already betting that the crisis would ease again. The market has learned the pattern.

How we handle it

We do not try to trade the cycle. We focus on what the cycle keeps causing: governments and companies spending to make sure they are never this exposed again. That response, the build-out of domestic power, grids, storage, and electrification, does not reverse when a ceasefire is announced. It is the part of this story we want to own. With reports that renewed military plans may follow the U.S. midterm elections [26], we expect the loop to keep turning for a while.

05 — THE AI SPENDING MACHINE: FROM $400 BILLION TO $800 BILLION TO $1 TRILLION-PLUS

The Numbers Keep Getting Bigger

Figure 4: Capital spending by the largest U.S. cloud and AI companies. Definitions vary by source (four, five, or six companies); ranges reflect that. 2027 figures are analyst and rating-agency estimates.

The scale here is hard to overstate. Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta spent about $410 billion on capital projects in 2025 [27]. Based on guidance from their third-quarter reports, the five largest spenders (now including SpaceX) are on track for roughly $803–$828 billion in 2026, with $227 billion spent in the third quarter alone [6]. And no one is talking about slowing down. Alphabet's finance chief told investors, "We continue to expect our CapEx to increase significantly in 2027" [6]. Bank of America and Evercore project combined spending above $1 trillion next year [27]; Moody's sees it closing in on $1 trillion [28]; and S&P Global Ratings expects a broader group of six to exceed $1.3 trillion by 2027 [29].

When Spending Outruns Cash Flow

For most of the past decade, these companies paid for everything out of pocket. That is changing. S&P Global Ratings now expects all six of the largest hyperscalers to generate negative free operating cash flow in 2026 and 2027, with recovery not projected until 2029 [29]. To fill the gap, they are turning to outside money:

• Debt: New borrowing rose from about 9% of capital spending in fiscal 2024 to about 32% over the twelve months to mid-2026, pushing total debt to roughly $700 billion, according to FactSet [7]. Morgan Stanley expects AI-related debt issuance to more than double to nearly $570 billion this year [30].

• Equity: Stock issuance has returned to the mix. Alphabet priced an $84.75 billion equity raise in June, and Oracle plans about $40 billion in combined debt and equity for its next fiscal year [7].

• Credit ratings: Differences are emerging. S&P downgraded Oracle to BBB− in July, citing surging capital spending, negative free cash flow, and customer concentration [7].

To be fair to the spenders, the demand is real. The big cloud platforms added roughly $700 billion in contracted future revenue over two quarters, and Microsoft's AI revenue run-rate more than doubled year over year [28]. This is not a build-it-and-hope situation. But when an industry starts borrowing heavily to build capacity, the questions shift from "how fast can it grow?" to "what happens if growth pauses?"

Where we want to stand

We would rather own the companies that supply what the build-out physically cannot do without, such as power, grid equipment, and the infrastructure to deliver electrons, than take on the balance-sheet risk of the spenders themselves. Data centers can be financed with debt. Transformers and transmission lines still have to be built, and the companies that build them get paid either way.

06 — A ONE-ENGINE ECONOMY

The U.S. economy grew at a healthy 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, beating expectations [31]. Consumers deserve real credit, with spending up a solid 3.8% [31]. But look at where the investment growth came from and a clear picture emerges.

Figure 5: Real growth by component in the third quarter, annualized. AI-related categories (computers, servers, software, R&D) led; housing contracted.

Business investment rose 12.7%, led by a 37.4% surge in information-processing equipment, essentially the servers and chips that fill data centers [32]. Housing investment, squeezed by high mortgage rates, fell 3.3% and has now declined in six of the last seven quarters [33]. A meaningful part of the quarter's growth also came from businesses building inventories, which tends to be less durable [34]. ING economist James Knightley estimates that AI investment accounts for roughly one-third of U.S. GDP growth this year [35].

Outside the AI ecosystem, many categories are shrinking. The American Institute of Architects expects data center construction spending to jump 33% this year, while manufacturing construction falls 11.6% after a 6.7% decline in 2025 [36]. One construction economist calculates that the annual rate of factory construction has fallen from $226 billion in January 2025 to $155 billion in August 2026 [37].

Not everyone agrees on just how big the AI effect is. Goldman Sachs economists have argued that because so much of the equipment is imported, AI's contribution to measured GDP is much smaller than the headline spending suggests [38]. We think that debate is healthy. What is not in debate is the direction: an unusually large share of the economy's forward momentum now depends on spending decisions made by a handful of companies, revisited every 90 days.

07 — ENERGY SECURITY IS ACCELERATING THE TRANSITION, AND WHY WE BUY THE DIPS

The World's Problems Keep Making the Case

Step back from the daily noise and nearly every major challenge of 2026 points in the same direction. An oil chokepoint that won't stay open. Liquefied natural gas shipments from the Gulf still disrupted, keeping European gas prices elevated [39]. A Federal Reserve forced to fight energy-driven inflation. And an AI industry whose biggest constraint is electricity. Each of these makes domestically produced, electrified, price-stable energy more valuable.

The International Energy Agency's head, Fatih Birol, described the current moment as "the largest energy security crisis the world has ever faced" [40]. The IEA's World Energy Investment 2026 report projects record global energy investment of $3.4 trillion this year, with fuel-importing countries showing growing interest in domestic sources such as renewables and nuclear [40]. Roughly $2.2 trillion of that is going to renewables, storage, grids, and low-emission fuels [41]. Nuclear is gaining momentum too, with more than $80 billion of annual investment and 78 gigawatts under construction across 15 countries [40].

So Why Did Clean Energy Stocks Fall?

The global RENIXX renewable energy index gave back most of its first-half gains during the third quarter [42]. That might seem to contradict everything above, but it connects directly to Section 02. Wind farms, solar parks, storage projects, and transmission lines are long-duration assets: they cost a lot up front and pay back over decades, often financed with borrowed money. When the 10-year yield jumps nearly a full point in a quarter, their financing costs rise and their future cash flows are worth less today. The IEA itself noted that the crisis is complicating financing for future energy projects [43].

In other words, the sell-off was about the price of money, not the demand for energy. That distinction is the whole basis for how we invest in this theme. When prices fall because the long-term thesis is breaking, you should sell. When prices fall because of a temporary change in financing conditions while the long-term thesis gets stronger, you should be adding. This quarter was clearly the second kind, and we added to our positions in grid infrastructure, storage, power generation, and the materials that electrification requires.

Our discipline on dips

We add in measured steps rather than all at once, we favor companies with contracted revenue and solid balance sheets that can ride out a period of higher rates, and we size positions so that a further drawdown is an opportunity rather than a problem. Higher rates may persist for a while; we'd rather be early and patient than late and enthusiastic.

08 — WHAT WE'RE WATCHING: MARGIN DEBT

One indicator we've been watching closely is the amount investors are borrowing from their brokers to buy stocks, known as margin debt.

• Margin debt hit a record of about $1.50 trillion in June, up 49% from a year earlier [44]. Over that same year, borrowing grew about 28 percentage points faster than the market, the widest gap since October 2007 [45].

• July then saw a $84.8 billion drop, the largest one-month decline in dollars on record, though in percentage terms (5.6%) it ranked only 25th [46].

• By August, borrowing was back up to about $1.45 trillion, up roughly 37% from a year earlier [47].

Figure 6: FINRA margin debit balances. The August 2026 figure is rounded from published commentary.

To keep this in perspective, First Trust points out that measured against the total value of the stock market, margin debt was about 2.3% in the second quarter, right in line with its average since 1997 [48]. Big markets naturally support big borrowing. Margin debt has also historically moved with the market rather than ahead of it, so it is a poor timing tool [46].

Why do we still care? Because leverage is an amplifier. Margin loans are priced off short-term interest rates, which the Fed just raised. If stocks fall, borrowed positions can be forced to sell, turning an ordinary pullback into a sharper one. We are not positioning for that scenario, but it is one reason we keep our own portfolios unlevered, keep some dry powder available, and prefer to buy weakness rather than chase strength.

09 — OUTLOOK: WHAT WE EXPECT, AND WHAT WOULD CHANGE OUR MIND

A Closing Thought

If the second quarter was about markets recovering from fear, the third quarter was about markets adjusting to a new price of money. Neither quarter changed the big picture we've been describing all year: a world that is rewiring how it produces and secures its energy, driven by geopolitics, by the economics of AI, and by plain common sense about not depending on a single strait for a fifth of the world's oil.

We know quarters like this one can be frustrating: the headline index is up, yet many portfolios feel flat, and the news never seems to stop. We'd encourage you to judge us, and the companies we own, over years rather than quarters. We are not making panicked moves, we are not chasing what has already run, and we are using weakness in the themes we believe in to add at better prices.

As always, thank you for the trust you place in us. Please reach out to your advisor with any questions, or to talk through how these themes apply to your own portfolio.

With appreciation,

The Investment Team
Portola Creek Capital
November 2026

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This newsletter is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. It does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any individual recipient. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, including FactSet, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, FINRA, the Federal Reserve, the International Energy Agency, S&P Global Ratings, Moody's, and contemporaneous financial press reporting, but Portola Creek Capital does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Third-party estimates and forecasts are attributed to their sources and are not adopted as Portola Creek Capital's own.

References to specific sectors, themes, commodities, indexes, or companies are for illustrative and discussion purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Index returns are shown for illustration; investors cannot invest directly in an index, and index returns do not reflect fees or expenses. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Forward-looking statements reflect our current views and are subject to change without notice.

SOURCES

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39. Reuters via BOE Report, "Citi revises Q3 2026 Brent forecast to $86/bbl" (Sept 3, 2026). https://boereport.com/?p=587971

40. Arab News, "Global energy investment to hit record $3.4tn despite Middle East conflict: IEA" (May 30, 2026). https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2645474

41. International Finance, "Uptick in LNG investments, gloom for oil: Key points from IEA report" (2026). https://internationalfinance.com/?p=56359

42. Renewable-Energy-Industry.com (IWR), "RENIXX Under Pressure in Third Quarter" (Oct 2026). https://www.renewable-energy-industry.com/news/world/article-7686

43. PV Tech, "Iran energy crisis to 'reshape' energy investment – IEA" (2026). https://www.pv-tech.org/iran-energy-crisis-to-reshape-energy-investment-iea/

44. YCharts, FINRA Margin Debt (FINRA Margin Statistics). https://ycharts.com/indicators/finra_margin_debt

45. The Trading Tools, "Margin debt is growing 28 points faster than the market" (Aug 13, 2026). https://www.thetrading.tools/chart-of-the-day/2026-08-13-margin-debt-growth-gap

46. The Trading Tools, "Margin debt fell $84.8 billion in July, the largest monthly drop on record" (Sept 10, 2026). https://www.thetrading.tools/chart-of-the-day/2026-09-10-margin-debt-record-drop

47. Advisor Perspectives (dshort), Margin Debt update through August 2026. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/06/27/margin-debt-down-2-6-in-may

48. First Trust, "Three on Thursday: Margin Debt Continues to Climb" (Oct 15, 2026). https://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2026/10/15/margin-debt-continues-to-climb